AI与前沿科技

OpenAI GPT-5:年底前能否正式发布?

结算截止
2024/12/31 20:00(北京时间)
页面生成时间
2026/10/22 00:18(北京时间)

结算结果

结算结果:否

GPT-5 发布时间窗口已经结束,保留用于复盘,不再作为当前科技市场定价。

结算前概率:0.0%

走势:数据记录中

结算说明

裁决来源:OpenAI 官方博客及公开发布会声明

以 OpenAI 官方正式面向全球开发者或普通订阅用户开放 GPT-5 访问为最终判定标准。

查看完整英文规则

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

概率来自 Polymarket 公开市场价格,仅表示市场当前定价,不是客观预测,也不构成交易建议。