AI与前沿科技
2026 年底哪家公司拥有最强综合 AI 基础模型？
- 预定截止
- 2027/01/01 01:00（北京时间）Polymarket 标注的计划截止时间，实际可能提前或延后
- 官方裁决
- 停止交易后由裁决来源确认结果，通常晚于截止时间
- 页面生成时间
- 2026/11/08 00:59（北京时间）
本站详情
加入后由本站观察市场概率变化并按规则提醒，不连接钱包、不下单。
各选项当前概率
- Google64.5%+3.0pp
- Anthropic29.0%-1.5pp
- OpenAI4.0%-0.4pp
- xAI0.8%暂无
- Meta0.7%-0.1pp
- Alibaba0.3%暂无
- DeepSeek0.3%暂无
- Moonshot0.3%暂无
展开全部（共 15 个）收起
- Z.ai0.1%暂无
- Mistral<0.1%暂无
- Meituan<0.1%暂无
- Microsoft<0.1%暂无
- Amazon<0.1%暂无
- Baidu<0.1%暂无
- ByteDance<0.1%暂无
走势从 11/01 起记录，共 5.7 天
- Google64.5%
- Anthropic29.0%
- OpenAI4.0%
查看数据表
| 日期 | Anthropic | OpenAI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01 | 暂无 | 暂无 | 5.7% |
| 11/01 | 56.0% | 36.5% | 5.7% |
| 11/01 | 52.5% | 36.5% | 5.7% |
| 11/02 | 53.5% | 36.5% | 5.7% |
| 11/02 | 53.5% | 36.5% | 5.6% |
| 11/02 | 54.0% | 36.5% | 5.0% |
| 11/02 | 53.5% | 36.5% | 5.1% |
| 11/02 | 55.5% | 38.0% | 5.1% |
| 11/03 | 55.5% | 38.5% | 5.1% |
| 11/03 | 55.5% | 35.0% | 5.1% |
| 11/03 | 57.0% | 30.5% | 5.1% |
| 11/04 | 58.5% | 32.0% | 5.1% |
| 11/04 | 57.0% | 33.0% | 5.3% |
| 11/04 | 54.5% | 36.5% | 6.0% |
| 11/04 | 55.5% | 35.5% | 6.0% |
| 11/04 | 55.5% | 34.5% | 5.1% |
| 11/04 | 57.5% | 35.5% | 5.3% |
| 11/05 | 57.5% | 35.5% | 5.3% |
| 11/05 | 60.5% | 32.5% | 4.0% |
| 11/05 | 60.5% | 31.5% | 4.0% |
| 11/05 | 61.5% | 31.5% | 4.2% |
| 11/06 | 60.5% | 31.5% | 4.3% |
| 11/06 | 60.5% | 31.0% | 4.3% |
| 11/07 | 61.5% | 30.5% | 4.5% |
结算说明
裁决来源：lmarena.ai 文本榜单（Chatbot Arena Leaderboard）
以 2026 年 12 月 31 日美东中午 12:00 查看的 lmarena.ai 文本榜单（关闭风格控制）排名为准，排名并列时按 Arena 分数排序。
展开各子结果的单独规则（共 11 条）收起各子结果的单独规则
Company A
该结果的截止：2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）
Company B
该结果的截止：2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）
Company C
该结果的截止：2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）
Company D
该结果的截止：2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）
Company E
该结果的截止：2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）
Company F
该结果的截止：2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）
Company G
该结果的截止：2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）
Company H
该结果的截止：2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）
Company I
该结果的截止：2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）
Company K
该结果的截止：2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）
其他
该结果的截止：2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）
查看完整英文规则
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolution source: https://lmarena.ai/
概率来自 Polymarket 公开市场价格，是市场当前对事件的预测，不构成交易建议。