大宗与宏观经济
美国经济：2026 年底前是否陷入衰退？
- 预定截止
- 2026/12/31 08:00（北京时间）Polymarket 标注的计划截止时间，实际可能提前或延后
- 官方裁决
- 停止交易后由裁决来源确认结果，通常晚于截止时间
- 页面生成时间
- 2026/11/08 00:59（北京时间）
本站详情
加入后由本站观察市场概率变化并按规则提醒，不连接钱包、不下单。
各选项当前概率
- 未陷入衰退（否）95.5%暂无
- 陷入衰退（是）4.5%暂无
走势从 10/26 起记录，共 12.5 天
- 概率4.5%
查看数据表
| 日期 | 概率 |
|---|---|
| 10/26 | 8.5% |
| 10/26 | 7.5% |
| 10/29 | 6.5% |
| 10/29 | 5.5% |
| 10/30 | 5.5% |
| 10/30 | 7.0% |
| 10/31 | 7.0% |
| 10/31 | 6.5% |
| 10/31 | 6.5% |
| 11/01 | 5.5% |
| 11/01 | 5.5% |
| 11/02 | 5.5% |
| 11/02 | 5.5% |
| 11/03 | 5.5% |
| 11/03 | 5.5% |
| 11/04 | 5.5% |
| 11/04 | 5.5% |
| 11/05 | 5.5% |
| 11/05 | 4.5% |
| 11/06 | 4.5% |
| 11/06 | 4.5% |
| 11/07 | 4.5% |
| 11/07 | 4.5% |
| 11/08 | 4.5% |
结算说明
裁决来源：美国国家经济研究局（NBER）官方认定
以 NBER 商业周期测定委员会官方发布的经济衰退公告为准。
查看完整英文规则
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Resolution source: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
概率来自 Polymarket 公开市场价格，是市场当前对事件的预测，不构成交易建议。