地缘大选与冲突
下一届法国总统大选最终获胜者
- 预定截止
- 2027/04/19 11:59（北京时间）Polymarket 标注的计划截止时间，实际可能提前或延后
- 官方裁决
- 停止交易后由裁决来源确认结果，通常晚于截止时间
- 页面生成时间
- 2026/11/08 00:59（北京时间）
本站详情
加入后由本站观察市场概率变化并按规则提醒，不连接钱包、不下单。
各选项当前概率
- Marine Le Pen45.1%+0.6pp
- David Lisnard14.8%-0.2pp
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon13.5%+1.0pp
- Édouard Philippe10.5%暂无
- Christine Lagarde7.2%+0.1pp
- Raphaël Glucksmann2.8%暂无
- Jordan Bardella2.3%-0.1pp
- François Hollande2.0%-0.3pp
展开全部（共 45 个）收起
- Dominique de Villepin1.9%-0.4pp
- Bruno Retailleau0.8%-0.1pp
- Éric Zemmour0.6%-0.1pp
- Gabriel Attal0.5%-0.1pp
- Sarah Knafo0.1%-0.1pp
- Sébastien Lecornu0.1%暂无
- François Baroin0.1%-0.1pp
- Xavier Bertrand0.1%-0.1pp
- François Ruffin0.1%暂无
- Laurent Wauquiez<0.1%暂无
- Marine Tondelier<0.1%暂无
- Fabien Roussel<0.1%暂无
- Olivier Faure<0.1%暂无
- Ségolène Royal<0.1%-0.1pp
- François Asselineau<0.1%-0.1pp
- Clémentine Autain<0.1%暂无
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<0.1%暂无
- Michel Barnier<0.1%暂无
- Valérie Pécresse<0.1%暂无
- François Bayrou<0.1%暂无
- Élisabeth Borne<0.1%暂无
- Yaël Braun-Pivet<0.1%暂无
- Jean Castex<0.1%暂无
- Gérald Darmanin<0.1%暂无
- Carole Delga<0.1%暂无
- Bernard Cazeneuve<0.1%暂无
- Manuel Bompard<0.1%暂无
- Mathilde Panot<0.1%暂无
- Juan Branco<0.1%暂无
- Clémence Guetté<0.1%暂无
- Karim Bouamrane<0.1%暂无
- Lucie Castets<0.1%暂无
- Yannick Jadot<0.1%暂无
- Marion Maréchal<0.1%暂无
- Natacha Polony<0.1%暂无
- Anasse Kazib<0.1%暂无
- Sylvain Durif<0.1%暂无
走势从 10/25 起记录，共 13.4 天
- Marine Le Pen45.1%
- David Lisnard14.8%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon13.5%
查看数据表
| 日期 | Marine Le Pen | David Lisnard | Jean-Luc Mélenchon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/25 | 45.4% | 暂无 | 暂无 |
| 10/25 | 45.4% | 14.1% | 11.5% |
| 10/25 | 44.0% | 14.3% | 11.5% |
| 10/26 | 43.6% | 14.4% | 11.5% |
| 10/26 | 43.5% | 14.1% | 11.5% |
| 10/26 | 43.3% | 14.1% | 11.5% |
| 10/26 | 43.3% | 14.1% | 11.5% |
| 10/26 | 43.3% | 14.1% | 10.5% |
| 10/26 | 43.3% | 14.1% | 10.5% |
| 10/26 | 43.3% | 14.3% | 10.5% |
| 10/26 | 43.3% | 14.3% | 10.5% |
| 10/26 | 43.5% | 14.2% | 10.5% |
| 10/28 | 43.0% | 16.4% | 11.5% |
| 10/28 | 43.0% | 17.2% | 11.5% |
| 10/28 | 43.0% | 15.6% | 11.5% |
| 10/31 | 40.9% | 18.3% | 11.5% |
| 11/04 | 40.2% | 15.2% | 14.5% |
| 11/05 | 43.0% | 16.1% | 12.5% |
| 11/06 | 42.6% | 14.8% | 12.5% |
| 11/06 | 43.6% | 15.3% | 12.5% |
| 11/06 | 44.3% | 15.3% | 12.5% |
| 11/06 | 44.5% | 15.0% | 12.5% |
| 11/07 | 45.1% | 14.8% | 12.5% |
| 11/07 | 45.1% | 14.8% | 13.5% |
结算说明
裁决来源：法国宪法委员会官方计票结果
以法国官方公布的正式大选最终获胜者名单为准。
查看完整英文规则
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolution source: https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/
概率来自 Polymarket 公开市场价格，是市场当前对事件的预测，不构成交易建议。