美联储与央行
2026 年美联储降息总次数预测
- 预定截止
- 2027/01/01 12:59（北京时间）Polymarket 标注的计划截止时间，实际可能提前或延后
- 官方裁决
- 停止交易后由裁决来源确认结果，通常晚于截止时间
- 页面生成时间
- 2026/11/08 00:59（北京时间）
本站详情
加入后由本站观察市场概率变化并按规则提醒，不连接钱包、不下单。
各选项当前概率
- 0次98.0%+0.3pp
- 1次1.1%-0.2pp
- 2次0.3%暂无
- 3次0.2%暂无
- 4次0.1%暂无
- 5次0.1%暂无
- 12次及以上0.1%暂无
- 6次<0.1%暂无
展开全部（共 13 个）收起
- 7次<0.1%暂无
- 8次<0.1%暂无
- 9次<0.1%暂无
- 10次<0.1%暂无
- 11次<0.1%暂无
走势从 11/02 起记录，共 5.2 天
- 0次98.0%
- 1次1.1%
- 2次0.3%
查看数据表
| 日期 | 0次 | 1次 | 2次 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02 | 97.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 11/03 | 97.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 11/03 | 97.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 11/03 | 97.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 11/03 | 97.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 11/03 | 97.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 11/04 | 97.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 11/04 | 96.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 11/04 | 96.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 11/04 | 97.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 11/05 | 97.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 11/05 | 97.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 11/05 | 97.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 11/05 | 97.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| 11/05 | 97.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 11/06 | 97.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 11/06 | 97.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 11/06 | 97.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| 11/06 | 97.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 11/07 | 97.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 11/07 | 97.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 11/07 | 98.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 11/07 | 97.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 11/08 | 98.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
结算说明
裁决来源：美联储官方历次 FOMC 决议汇总
按累计次数判定：每 25 个基点计 1 次，单次会议降 50bp 计 2 次。紧急降息也计入全年次数。
查看完整英文规则
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
概率来自 Polymarket 公开市场价格，是市场当前对事件的预测，不构成交易建议。