大宗与宏观经济

美国关税壁垒:是否实施 Section 232 关税加征?

预定截止
2028/01/01 12:59(北京时间)Polymarket 标注的计划截止时间,实际可能提前或延后
官方裁决
停止交易后由裁决来源确认结果,通常晚于截止时间
页面生成时间
2026/11/08 00:59(北京时间)

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各选项当前概率

结果当前概率24h 变化
  • 2027年12月31日59.5%+6.0pp
  • 2026年12月31日26.5%+5.0pp

走势:数据记录中

结算说明

裁决来源:美国联邦公报(Federal Register)官方通告

以美国白宫及商务部在《联邦公报》刊登的生效行政令或最终决议为准。

展开各子结果的单独规则(共 1 条)
  • 2026年12月31日

    该结果的截止:2027/01/01 12:59(北京时间)

查看完整英文规则

HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress. A qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way. A qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement. Tariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions. Only tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.

概率来自 Polymarket 公开市场价格,是市场当前对事件的预测,不构成交易建议。